Higher Rates Could Actually Help Housing Supply – Here’s How.
You may have heard the number of homes for sale isn’t growing like it was. And maybe that has you worried you won’t find a home you love when it’s time to make your move.
But that may be about to change. Here’s why your pool of options may actually start ticking back up again.
Growth Has Slowed, But It Hasn’t Stopped
Active listings were up 2.1% year-over-year in July, according to Realtor.com. Back in January, inventory was up 10%. And in May of 2025, it was up 31.5%. So, growth has cooled off a lot over the last year.
The past 3 months, though, have all seen inventory growth land in roughly the same range, which is a sign this slowdown may be nearing its floor (see graph below):
So, what does that mean for you?
Homes are still coming onto the market. Every single one of these bars shows a period where inventory grew. So, don’t be discouraged or let this make you think you’re out of options. Plus, we’ve seen more stability in the numbers lately, which is a good sign.
The Most Homes for Sale Since 2019
Compared to the rock-bottom lows of 2021, inventory has climbed back substantially. Nationally, the number of homes for sale has been up year-over-year consistently now for 33 months. And inventory has almost doubled in just a few years. So don’t get too hung up on the pace of that increase.
This July was actually the best July for inventory since 2019 (see graph below):
Now, the market still needs about 150k listings to get back to pre-pandemic levels, but things are quickly approaching normal. And experts think we may even be back to 2019 levels by the end of this year, even with the slowdown we’ve already seen.
And that’s thanks to one unlikely factor: mortgage rates.
Why Higher Rates May Actually Help Inventory Grow
It works like this. When mortgage rates climb, inventory tends to climb with them. As Mike Simonsen, Chief Economist at Compass, explains:
“When rates rise; inventory rises. When rates fall; inventory falls. So, from July last year to March this year, rates ease lower and all the inventory growth of the past several years evaporated. If rates move higher from here or stay elevated for [a] longer period of time, then we should expect supply to build again.”
Well, rates are expected to hold in the mid-to-upper 6% range for a while longer, and Realtor.com's latest forecast has inventory ending 2026 up 3.6% year-over-year.
That means 2 things:
Inventory growth is forecast to pick up a little bit throughout the rest of the year.
And, inventory is projected to close the year at a historically normal level, right about where it stood at the end of 2019.
For buyers, that’s a win. Even if today’s rates aren’t your favorite, they’re helping the number of homes on the market to grow. And more homes for sale means more choices, more room to negotiate, and less pressure to rush your search.
Bottom Line
The number of homes for sale is growing slowly but surely, and that means more options for your move. Want to see what’s available in your area? Reach out to a local real estate agent.
Categories
Recent Posts
